WE'RE ALL EUROPEAN NOW

Monday June 10 2002

By Philip Cornwall

Did you cheer when Paraguay took the lead against Spain on Friday morning, assuming you were paying attention in the build-up to the big game in Sapporo?

If you were backing the South Americans and you support any European nation, then it is time to think about the collective future of the continent's football.

The Irish can be excused, as the Spanish are potential last 16 opponents for Mick and the lads. Likewise the English when it comes to France. But if we want the best chance of qualifying for future World Cups then, in general, Europeans from Moscow to Cork need to stand together.

The current run of poor results opens up the possibility of the rest of the world outperforming UEFA's teams, which in the long run could threaten the future qualification chances of whichever nation you call home.

There are 15 European teams in the 2002 finals, compared to just one third that number from Africa, just over a quarter from Asia, and a fifth from North America.

While there have been bleats from various locations about this situation, the fact is that it is thoroughly justified by Europe's record of success in the finals.

The first truly representative tournament on ability was in 1954, as it was not marred by withdrawals from Europe on grounds of distance or by South Americans afraid of having their best players poached. True, Asia and Africa were scarcely represented, but the performances of their occasional representatives did little to challenge the status quo for a couple of decades, bar the odd shock.

Starting from the finals in Switzerland, Europe and South America have won six tournaments each and Europe's all-round strength has been even more impressive. Four different winners not two, for a start. Only once, in 1970, have Europe failed to provide the majority of the quarter-finalists - and then they provided 50%. In 1994, their margin in the last eight was 7-1 over South America. Four years ago, it was a still robust 6-2.

From the opposite perspective, Asia and Africa have only managed one quarter-finalist each (North Korea in 1966; Cameroon 1990).

North America has had two, but on both occasions that was Mexico as hosts.

While it is excellent for the game's global status that the rise to 32 competing teams has given more and more nations the chance to sample the World Cup finals, and there have been some brilliant one-off results, there has been no breakthrough.

Given this record, Europe is fully entitled to its near-50% share of places in the finals. South America has half its initial entrants in the finals, justified by them being Europe's only challengers. Both were boosted by play-off wins over teams from other confederations (Ireland beating Iran, Uruguay defeating Australia). Their excellent record in such matches is another justification for the status quo.

But what if this brilliant record slips in the finals? We have seen Korea, the United States and Senegal all outplay European opposition, the last two against highly-rated teams. Japan could easily have beaten Belgium as well as Russia.

These are troubling times for Europe, the gloom partially lifted by England's triumph over Argentina.

Just as the success or failure of one year's entrants in the Champions League helps determine how many qualifiers a country has in future years, so continents stand or fall on how their representatives get on in the World Cup finals.

There is no exact formula, unlike for the UEFA competitions, just political deals. Already, FIFA head Sepp Blatter has said he wants Oceania to have an automatic qualifying place for 2006. And whose total do we think that place is going to come off?

The bad news about all this is that the English should, really, cheer on Germany to get past Cameroon and join the Irish, we hope, in the last 16.

The good news is that it hands you a very neat justification for wanting the Swedes to knock out Argentina.

And if you're Scottish, Welsh or Irish, then even England's win over the South Americans had something of a silver lining.